Over the past few weeks, I've watched two television dramas that explored the possibility of a future in which mankind is finally freed of its dependence on fossil fuels. On its face, energy independence is a long sought-after panacea—the answer to our collective prayers, at least for those who understand that our current energy supply is finite, a significant cause of global warming, territorialism and conflict. One might think that a scientific breakthrough—energy without harmful consequence—would be embraced by everyone, but in these works it is a nightmare. Both programs depicted such a breakthrough leading to a total collapse of the world as we know it.
Although the scenarios differed in small details the counter narratives began with social unrest brought about by the loss of jobs for those who are employed in the fossil fuel energy sector. A real world example, unemployment in the coal industry, has proven very disruptive in those communities where environmental restrictions have sharply curtailed production or eliminated the use of coal entirely. The benefits to public health from the elimination of coal dust and its byproducts notwithstanding, the economic blows suffered by communities built around coal mining has been devastating. Solutions such as retraining, and efforts to attract new employment opportunities to mediate the impact have proved to be far less effective than hoped. It takes time, generations in some cases to adapt to large scale changes such as this. So, it isn't hard to imagine what the impact might be from the sudden elimination of the oil and gas industries. Massive unemployment would be the least of the challenges.
On the heels of widespread job loss and social unrest, the geopolitical ramifications would be even more profound as economies built largely on oil and gas reserves were bankrupted by diminishing demand. The balance of power would shift sharply, and with it the competition for control over energy resources rendered moot. The loss of the world’s financial and political metronome even over a realistic transition period is seemingly inconceivable. It exposes both the fragility of our current systems and our dependence on a very specific world order, one that we have to know is ultimately unsustainable. While the possibility of this occurring in the near term seems unlikely the recent pandemic has shown us how interdependent we have become and how quickly the wheels can fly off when the unforeseen becomes reality.
Given our recent experience it is hard to understand why so many still refuse to contemplate the implications of our current economic and political stance. The unthinkable attainment of a solution to world hunger and world peace is not for the faint of heart. And yet, with no such solution in sight we still see clear signs that any significant change to the current state of affairs would be massively disruptive. The focus in our country today, exacerbated by political division, the global pandemic, supply chain disruption, inflation and de facto recession calls into question the viability of our economic and social support systems. But for all those who rightly fault trickle down economics, corporate hegemony, and worker exploitation as the seeds of our self destruction, no alternative seems capable of addressing our dependence on the status quo. We may know that we cannot fix what is wrong without significant change, but there is no will to change that compels us.
We might argue that an existential threat is already manifest, but it is an iceberg seemingly at too great a distance to threaten the ship of state. Too many believe we can still steer away or it will magically melt away before we need concern ourselves. Barring such urgency there is no impetus to seek a glide path to the future, no meaningful plan to adapt to massive change. In the words of a scientist friend, if you hope to leap a crevasse, it’s best to do it in one leap. That seems to be our only hope, and it is a poor one at best. Is collapse near? Probably closer than we dare think, but not so close we hope that we will see it in our lifetimes—or our children’s. So we go on hoping that our dream of a solution to our greatest problems does not come to pass any time soon.
Opening the door on our collective closet of anxieties needs to be more than an exercise in television fiction. It is easy to dismiss such dire predictions but they linger in our subconscious and may begin to offer some insight into the extremism we are seeing emerge once again in our society. A tribal mentality urges a return to authoritarian repression, biblical injunctions are summoned up as justification for unwinding decades of social progress, ideas and knowledge itself are suddenly suspect , the putative causes of moral decay. As the seams in our economy and society begin to tear, and we are able to glimpse the fragile underpinnings, feel the tottering movements rippling through the foundations of our world, naked fear, superstition and ignorance will emerge as the driving forces.
Can we avoid this collapse? Are we destined to plunge our world into a new dark age? It is hard to see how we can arrest the fall except to reject the fear, to embrace change and to stand for the centuries of progress we have made--not the technology or industry, not the economic engines that have proven so fragile but the progress of the spirit and the mind. Our survival depends on it.
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